METSERVICE - Cyclone Gabrielle expected to bring significant severe weather to northern and central New Zealand

WHAT EFFECT WILL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE HAVE ON TASMAN/NELSON

'METSERVICE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK IMAGE' FOR TASMAN / NELSON MON 13 FEB TO TUE 14 FEB SEVERE GALES: E-SW CONFIDENCE HIGH - METSERVICE

After an intense weather system last August in the Nelson and Tasman region, understandably there is interest as to the possible effects of this coming weather system.

At this stage, the Nelson and Tasman areas should remain largely unaffected by rain, with some rainfall expected but none of which looks to reach warning criteria or have significant impacts to the area.

 

Winds could be something to watch a bit closer, however, as strong southeasterlies come though from the latter part of Monday into Tuesday. At this stage the Nelson and Tasman areas are in the area of high possibility of severe gales on the Severe Weather Outlook on our website https://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-outlook

This Severe Weather Outlook states:

Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to move southeastwards out of the tropics and will affect New Zealand through Tuesday. This is likely to be a very significant adverse weather event, and Severe Weather Warnings and Watches are in force for many areas, including Heavy Swell Warnings.

On Monday and Tuesday there is High Confidence that east to southeast gales, then south to southwest gales, will become severe over the entire North Island and the upper South Island, as indicated on the chart.

There is also High Confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria over Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa, and Moderate Confidence over Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taranaki, Taupo and Bay of Plenty.

On Tuesday, there is Moderate Confidence on Tuesday of significant heavy rain for Marlborough and Wellington.

Finally, there is High Confidence that easterly gales will become severe over the Chatham Islands later on Tuesday and Wednesday, accompanied by heavy northeast swell and sea.

MetService will be keeping a close eye on places expected to be affected and will be issuing Warnings and Watches accordingly, as well as expected impacts.

MetService Confidence ratings:

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

MetService Issued 11 Feb 2023

Pigeon Post News Richmond, Tasman.