Take note:- Severe Weather Outlook

 

MetService Severe Weather Outlook - Valid Thu 17 Aug 2023 through to Sun 20 Aug 2023

MetService Severe Weather Outlook

A ridge of high pressure spreads onto the country from the west on Thursday, with cold and showery southwesterlies easing.

The flow is forecast to turn northerly on Friday as the ridge moves to the east of Aotearoa/New Zealand and a frontal system approaches from the Tasman Sea.

The front is expected to lie just to the west of Aotearoa/New Zealand by midnight Saturday, bringing rain to northern and western parts of the country and strong to gale force northeast winds to exposed places. The front should move eastwards over central New Zealand on Sunday, followed by a change to colder and showery southwesterlies. Meanwhile, the front is forecast to slow down as it moves eastwards over northern New Zealand due to a low developing on the front.

On Saturday, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria about northwest Tasman, and low confidence of heavy rain for Westland south of Otira.

On Sunday, there continues to be moderate confidence of warnable amounts of rain for northwest Tasman, while there is low confidence of a period of heavy rain for other parts of Nelson/Tasman and northern Marlborough. There is also low confidence of a warnable period of heavy rain and severe northeast gales for the northern North Island from North Taranaki across the central high country to East Cape, as drawn on the chart. However, for Taranaki Maunga the confidence of heavy rain is considered moderate.

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Issued: 10:33am Tue, 15 Aug
Valid from midnight Wed, 16 Aug to midnight Sun, 20 Aug

MetService

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