MetService February 2024 Outlook – The return of the Northland ridge and long-promised westerlies

 

MetService - Figure 1: Map showing forecast rainfall for February 2024, relative to the February average.

February 2024 Outlook – The return of the Northland ridge and long-promised westerlies

As kids across NZ head back to school, it looks like the weather maps have been studying hard over the summer break with a textbook El Nino month on the cards this February. After El Nino impacts stuttered a bit through the first couple months of summer an enhanced westerly regime, with high pressure ridging persistent across northern NZ and regular fronts washing through south of the high (this is a classic signal during an El Nino summer), is likely to dominate over the next month. 

MetService

Figure 2: These maps show the forecast weekly temperature anomaly (deviation from the norm), in Celsius. The anomaly is calculated from averaging a group of models. The weekly temperature deviation for this week is shown on the left; next week is shown on the right.

The high might win out across South Island at times too, but not as much as we have seen through early summer, and a more unsettled, windier outlook is favoured for the SW corner of New Zealand than over recent months.

Near to above normal rainfall is expected for the west and south of the South Island, with the strongest signal for wetter conditions in Fiordland. Fronts should occasionally intrude into the dominant high pressure over the North Island, but any moisture these bring to western areas will likely be rapidly sucked out of the ground by persistent windy days. 

Figure 3: These maps show the forecast weekly rainfall anomaly (deviation from the norm), in mm. The anomaly is calculated from averaging a group of models. These plots should be used to identify wetter or drier than usual regions, but rainfall amounts differ significantly from rainfall anomalies. Use the latest MetService forecasts and warnings to assess rainfall at your place.

Eastern and northern areas are expected to be drier than normal, especially during the first half of the month.

A cool start to the month, but temperatures should rebound around Waitangi Day. The second half of the month should see regular fluctuations with plenty of warm days still, but interspersed with cooler outbreaks, before an overall downwards trend towards the tail end of summer.

Bottom Line: Longer settled spells for northern NZ, westerlies further south. Expect some windy days in the mix too.

MetService Comms.

Pigeon Post News, Richmond.