MetService Weekly Forecast

High pressure may give way to a sub-tropical low

23/01/2023

Covering period of Monday 23 - Friday 27 January.

A large area of high pressure moves onto New Zealand today from the Tasman Sea, bringing fine, settled weather to most places this week, before drifting slowly eastwards.  However, MetService is keeping an eye on the sky to the north of the country, where a sub-tropical low is expected to develop.  This low is preceded by humid easterly winds, and could bring wet weather to Northland on Friday, and possibly into the weekend.

MetService Meteorologist Peter Little comments, “Computer weather models are all developing a low to the north of New Zealand on Wednesday, then moving it slowly southwards, possibly bringing heavy rain to Northland on Friday.  The models currently differ as to how far south they spread the sub-tropical moisture and rain associated with this low, so there will probably be some fine-tuning of forecasts for northern New Zealand later in the week as models come to a consensus.”

(Continued below)

High pressure brings respite following Cyclone Hale

Hints that active weather systems could develop in the tropics next week

12/01/2023

Covering period of Thursday 12 - Monday 16 January

The remnants of Cyclone Hale are moving away to the east of New Zealand today, and MetService is forecasting high pressure to bring settled conditions through the weekend.

An Orange Warning for heavy rain is in place for Waitomo and Waikato south of Hamilton until 1pm this (Thursday) afternoon. Corrigan confirms, “This is the last of the severe weather associated with Cyclone Hale before we can look forward to some more classical summery conditions with an oncoming area of high pressure.” 

 

Temperatures over the coming days are forecast to be typical for mid-January with a couple of exceptions. Cooler cloudy weather with southerlies and the odd shower is expected in eastern North Island regions with daytime highs around 20°C. Southland and Central Otago will have a hot and sunny Sunday with temperatures in the high twenties, and 30°C is currently forecast for Alexandra. 

 

Speaking of hot days, Hokitika has recorded three out of its five highest temperatures (records since 1963) in the last week thanks to sunny skies and a southeasterly Föhn wind blowing across the Southern Alps around the southern edge of Cyclone Hale. They reached 28.8°C yesterday afternoon, their third hottest temperature on record.

Our forecasters are continually monitoring the tropics, and there are hints that active weather systems could develop there next week. If any tropical weather systems do threaten to head towards the country, then MetService will have all the updates on our website and social media.

MetService Forecast for Tasman:

Friday

 13 JAN

A fine morning, apart from early showers west of Motueka. Cloud and isolated showers developing inland from afternoon, becoming cloudy everywhere in the evening. Light winds, but easterlies for Golden Bay.

Issued: 10:50am Thu 12 Jan

Saturday

 14 JAN

Mainly fine. Isolated showers about the ranges. Light winds, but easterlies at times in Golden Bay.

Issued: 9:24am Thu 12 Jan

Sunday

 15 JAN

Partly cloudy, with a few showers in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Issued: 10:45am Thu 12 Jan

Monday

 16 JAN

Fine, then a few showers developing in the afternoon. Light winds and sea breezes.

Issued: 10:45am Thu 12 Jan

MetService

Pigeon Post News, Richmond

Royal Mail hit by cyber incident And All US flights grounded by FAA

US flights grounded by FAA

Planes circle over New York

Planes appear to be circling JFK and Newark airports in New York as the Federal Aviation Administration deals with the glitch that is preventing planes from landing.

However, it appears some flights may be landing.

Issues with pilot notification system to blame for disruption

An IT meltdown has grounded every flight to or from and within the US in a blow to thousands of travellers.

The disruption to air travel has come after the failure of a key pilot notification system operated by the Federal Aviation Administration.

Thousands of passengers have been hit by delays, and there was no estimate available for the restoration of the Notice to Air Missions system, or Notam.

It conveys urgent advisory information essential for flight operations. Tracking website FlightAware has already listed more than 1,160 US delays.

The Notam system provides airlines with real time safety information for flight planning.

The US airlines association, Airlines for America, said it has been notified about the disruptions, and that it is "working with the FAA and awaiting further information regarding when these issues will be resolved." 

An IT meltdown has grounded every flight to or from and within the US in a blow to thousands of travellers.

Latest tweet from FAA

Update 5: Normal air traffic operations are resuming gradually across the U.S. following an overnight outage to the Notice to Air Missions system that provides safety information to flight crews. The ground stop has been lifted.

We continue to look into the cause of the initial problem.

Royal Mail

Royal Mail has been left unable to send letters or parcels overseas after the postal service suffered a crippling "cyber incident” A company statement warned customers to expect delays or disruptions to packages already sent and urged others not to attempt to send mail internationally while the problems continued. 

It is understood the problem was first discovered on Tuesday morning and that staff at Royal Mail have been attempting to uncover the cause since then. 

Six sites are affected, including a huge sorting facility located next to Heathrow Airport, where most outgoing international mail is sorted before leaving the UK. 

The company, which is considered part of Britain's critical national infrastructure, is in touch with the police and at least one security service following the incident. 

A Royal Mail spokesman said: "We have asked customers temporarily to stop submitting any export items into the network while we work hard to resolve the issue.

"Some customers may experience delay or disruption to items already shipped for export.

"Our import operations continue to perform a full service with some minor delays.

"Our teams are working around the clock to resolve this disruption and we will update customers as soon as we have more information.”

The National Cyber Security Centre has confirmed it is assisting the company, along with the National Crime Agency. 

Pigeon Post News, Richmond.

Restricted fire season for West Coast

 

Fire and Emergency New Zealand today the 10 January 2023 released a statement about the start of a restricted fire season for the West Coast.

All of Buller and Grey Districts are now in a restricted fire season, effective from 8am this morning (10 January).

District Manager Myles Taylor says the change in season means in these areas you will need a permit to light a fire in the open air.

"You can apply for a permit at www.checkitsalright.nz. If you have a permit, you will need to follow the conditions listed on the permit," he says. "The current hot and dry conditions mean any fires can spread very fast and can be difficult to control.”

"Check the conditions at www.checkitsalright.nz before lighting a fire and see if it is safe to do your activity. You can also find tips to do your activity safely and prevent a devastating wildfire.”

"Anyone planning to do activities that may cause a spark - like mowing, or other hot works - should do these in the cooler parts of the day when its less risky.”

People are reminded that all public conservation land on the West Coast remains in a restricted fire season all year round.

"Whether you’re holidaying or live here, please take care and do your bit to keep the West Coast safe this summer," says Myles.

Fire and Emergency NZ.

Pigeon Post News, Richmond

Severe gales and heavy rain is crossing the North Island

Ex-tropical cyclone Hale continues

This is the risk the storm will bring with it the risk of slips, flooding, power cuts, trees down and road closures. Photo: Thames-Coromandel District Council/Supplied.

A surge of severe gales and heavy rain is crossing the North Island for the next 2 days.

This comes as Hale, now an ex-tropical cyclone, is expected to strengthen into an extra-tropical storm in the NZ area on Tuesday, before departing to the south east by late week.

The storm wasn't even a tropical cyclone for 24 hours, making it just over half a day before losing it's official named status, says WeatherWatch.

"Hale was never expected to be a major storm - the real issue for New Zealand has always been what would happen to it once it reaches here and redevelops," says a spokesperson for the weather organisation.

"All tropical cyclones that reach NZ lose their official "tropical cyclone" status at some point, usually just north of Northland - then the storm changes into an extra-tropical storm, this can make the system rapidly grow in size and whilst it loses some intensity at the centre, it grows much larger overall (put another way, the energy gets spread further from the centre).

"The remnants of what was Cyclone Hale will bring another burst of severe weather to North Island camping grounds and holiday spots - but the good news is that it's unlikely to stick around with most forecasts expecting it to leave NZ on Thursday.

"The storm brings with it the risk of slips, flooding, power cuts, trees down and road closures."

The low/storm is expected to make a direct hit into the North Island on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Most affected at this stage:

• Eastern Northland
• North Auckland
• Eastern Waikato
• Coromandel Peninsula
• Bay of Plenty
• East Cape & Gisborne
• Hawke's Bay
• Wairarapa
• Cook Strait Area

Please note, other regions may have severe weather too from this storm. Keep up to date with the latest MetService severe weather watches and warnings for New Zealand.

Pigeon Post News, Richmond

Manatū Hauora Ministry of Health

Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 detected in New Zealand

Covid-19 Kraken variant has arrived in New Zealand

The Ministry of Health released this statement today.

The XBB.1.5 variant of COVID-19, also known as Kraken, has been detected by whole genome sequencing in New Zealand.

The Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR) reported the whole genome sequencing results for two COVID-19 cases with XBB.1.5 late last week.

The list of new subvariants appearing within New Zealand is lengthy and growing. Many of these new subvariants are identified by their mutations, but it can take weeks or months to determine whether these mutations will allow a subvariant to out-compete others circulating in the community. At the early stage of a new variant being identified in New Zealand, it is difficult to predict whether and when it will become established in the community.

The detection of XBB.1.5 is not unexpected, following its recent detection in Australia and globally, and our COVID-19 response accounts for the emergence of new variants.

So far, most Omicron variants have not demonstrated a change in severity of the disease, and there is no evidence at this stage to indicate XBB.1.5 causes more severe disease compared to other variants. The proportion of COVID-19 cases in the USA caused by the XBB.1.5 sub-lineage has been rapidly increasing in recent weeks, after having first been detected there in late October 2022.  XBB.1.5 appears to be outcompeting other XBB sub-lineages and BQ.1.1 in the USA. It remains unknown how XBB1.5 will compete against other variants in a New Zealand context, and whether this could affect the level of COVID-19 circulating in the community in the coming months.

Relative to many other parts of the world, New Zealand currently has a high level of immunity based on high vaccine uptake, combined with a recent wave of infections (so-called ‘hybrid immunity’).

Vaccines are still expected to provide protection against severe disease from XBB.1.5, particularly in those who have received boosters. We encourage people to get their vaccine and booster doses when they fall due. 

If you test positive, stay home and isolate. If you think you may be eligible for antiviral medicines, call your pharmacist or usual healthcare provider and ask for a phone appointment to talk about whether antivirals are right for you. You can have the medicine delivered by friends, whānau or the pharmacy’s delivery service. Antiviral medicines must be started within 5 days of becoming sick with COVID-19. Have RATs on hand so you can test yourself as soon as you feel sick.

Pigeon Post News, Richmond

MetService Weather Release --- Covering period of Monday 9th - Thursday 12th January

Cyclone Hale to bring severe weather to New Zealand this week

09/01/2023

The first tropical cyclone of the 2023 season in the South Pacific was named by the forecast team at the Fiji Meteorological Service on Sunday morning. It tracked into New Zealand’s area of responsibility later Sunday and was reclassified as a tropical low by MetService.

MetService Meteorologist Peter Little comments, “Cyclone Hale is currently located southeast of New Caledonia, and is forecast to continue tracking southeastwards before curving toward the North Island on Tuesday.  Cyclone Hale will likely pass southwards over the central or eastern North Island on Wednesday, before moving away from the country.  There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and movement of Cyclone Hale, but it will bring a period of heavy rain, gale or severe gale winds and hazardous coastal conditions to parts of the North Island and Marlborough from Monday evening through until Thursday morning.”

Little says, “The most likely regions to be impacted by heavy rain are Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, while much of the North Island will experience a period of gale or severe gale winds from the southeast and/or southwest.  Several Severe Weather Warnings and Watches have been issued, and more areas will be added as the system moves closer and its track and intensity become more certain.”

Eastern coastlines from Northland to Wairarapa are also expected to take a battering from large waves on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Little explains, “Easterly swells of 4 to 6 metres are forecast to impact eastern facing coasts from Northland to Wairarapa on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could lead to coastal inundation and erosion around high tide.  The largest swells are expected to affect Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and Gisborne on Tuesday.”

Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure remains anchored over most of the South Island bringing relatively settled weather there, especially to the West Coast.

“The West Coast of the South Island has been enjoying a period of very sunny and warm weather this year, with Hokitika recording its 4th equal highest maximum temperature of 28.2°C on Sunday (recording began 59 years ago).  Their run of dry and warm weather is predicted to continue this week, with highs in the mid-twenties and just the chance of a shower,” adds Little.

Tuesday 10  January 2023 Noon - Rain, Pressure and Wind.

Nelson, Nelson Rural and Marlborough no Met Service warnings as yet. (As at 2.00 pm 9 Jan 23.)

Editor

Met Service release.

Pigeon Post News, Richmond.