METSERVICE MONTHLY OUTLOOK

 

August 2023 – A chilly end to winter 

New Zealand’s weather pattern during the final month of winter saw frequent impacts from cold southwesterly weather systems that brought bouts of wind, rain and snow across much of the country, very characteristic of developing El Niño conditions. Auckland experienced the coldest month in over a decade, while the North Island ski fields saw frequent top-ups which led to the best conditions in recent years.

Not to be out-done, the South Island also saw below average temperatures with Nelson recording the coldest month since 2004. Snow also fell to low-levels multiple times during the month and impacted the high-level roads on numerous occasions.

The final fortnight of winter saw predominant high pressure in the Tasman Sea bringing generally fine weather across the board, with hard morning frosts across the South Island and parts of the North Island, intermixed with the odd westerly front. However, this period of relative calm is unlikely to persist into spring as weather systems line up from the north and west to take aim at New Zealand.

Climate Drivers

The United States weather agency NOAA declared the start of El Niño conditions with the potential for a significant event by summer, while their Australian counterpart BoM is likely to confirm onset over the coming weeks. Despite this discrepancy, New Zealand is likely to see continuing El Niño-related impacts over the coming months, which include a more active and volatile westerly flow. This may be bolstered by a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, which is now looking likely to develop this spring which would enhance the westerly flow of weather across the country.

September 2023 Outlook

Spring begins with a subtropical low driving southwards across the upper North Island, with heavy easterly rain likely for those regions. Meanwhile, high pressure reigns supreme further south with below average rainfall likely over the South Island. 

Temperatures should trend well above average in the north, while southern regions see cold and frosty mornings followed by pleasant afternoons under largely blue skies.

The second week of September sees high pressure depart eastwards, which allows a build-up of westerly fronts to sweep across the country. These features will generally be quick-moving, with most regions seeing near-average rainfall and temperatures. However, the southern part of the South Island may trend slightly drier (and warmer) as weak ridging attempts to build in-between the fronts.

A weak low pressure anomaly returns across the South Island and part of the North Island during the third week of the month, indicating a slightly more active southwesterly weather pattern. 

An uptick in quick-moving fronts bringing bursts of heavy rain, wind and potentially late-season snow about higher-levels is possible, along with temperatures trending a bit below average with a possible cold snap. 

This anomaly moves offshore during the final week of the month, with New Zealand likely to see a mix of weak westerly fronts and drier weather. Cool mornings are likely to persist as the month of September comes to an end.

MetService - for farmers, croppers an home gardeners

Pigeon Post News

Fire and Emergency New Zealand

Fire and Emergency launches early National Wildfire Readiness and Prevention campaign

Fire and Emergency is urging people to start preparing for the risk of wildfire early as hotter drier weather is forecast this summer.

Service Delivery Wildfire Manager Tim Mitchell says the forecast higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and windier El Niño weather pattern predicted for this summer is likely to cause higher levels of fire danger on the east coasts of both islands.

"Given this year’s flood events and wet conditions, people will likely find it difficult to understand the wildfire risk New Zealand could be facing soon," he says.

"But a spell of hot dry windy weather will quickly dry out the grass and vegetation that has grown and will likely grow over the coming months, due to the moist soils and return to warmer weather. This will become a fire risk if not managed.

"Ninety-eight per cent of New Zealand wildfires are caused by people and people can do a great deal to prevent wildfires occurring and to help protect themselves and their property," Tim Mitchell says.

Fire and Emergency is encouraging people living in rural and semi-rural areas to prepare their properties by:

- keeping the grass short, particularly around their house and other structures

- moving firewood and other flammable materials well away from their house

- clearing the gutters so hot embers can’t lodge in them

- clearing accessways and making sure rapid address numbers are visible, and

• having a plan of action if they are involved in a vegetation fire.

Starting this month Fire and Emergency will provide location-specific, live fire danger advertisements if the level is High, Very High or Extreme through social channels, YouTube and Google search.

From late September, social media, online video, digital display, and radio will prompt semi-rural and rural dwellers to prepare their homes and properties for a wildfire.

People can also access real-time and localised fire danger levels and fire season information on MetService’s desktop and app platforms.

Before lighting a fire or doing anything that emits heat or sparks, people need to always check their local fire danger level at checkitsalright.nz.

Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand 1 Sep 2023 

Pigeon Post News Richmond Tasman 

Māpua Masterplan

 

Engage in Shaping Māpua's Future: Join the Community Drop-in Sessions on the Māpua Masterplan

Māpua, Tasman District - The Tasman District Council is inviting all residents of Māpua to actively participate in the development of the Māpua Masterplan by providing their valuable feedback and insights. The first in a series of interactive drop-in sessions, aimed at engaging the community on the Māpua Masterplan, is scheduled to be held at the Māpua Community Hall this Saturday. The sessions will run from 10am to 12pm, and again from 1pm to 3pm.

Your Voice Matters: Have a Say in Māpua's Future

The Tasman District Council recognises the importance of community input in shaping the future of Māpua. The upcoming drop-in sessions are designed to foster meaningful discussions and gather insights from local residents. These sessions provide an excellent opportunity for community members to voice their opinions and contribute to the vision outlined in the Māpua Masterplan.

Engagement Dates and Times:

• Saturday: 10am-12pm and 1pm-3pm
• Thursday, September 14: 2pm-4pm and 6pm-8pm

The Council hopes for robust discussions and valuable feedback from the community to help shape the Masterplan document effectively. One of the central topics up for discussion is the integration of diverse housing and business options that uphold Māpua's unique character while remaining resilient to natural hazards and climate change.

Building a Resilient Future: Addressing Key Concerns

Local concerns about proposed residential development are emerging, with some residents advocating for more housing options for retirees. The need for increased housing aligns with the growing population in Tasman. Moreover, it plays a crucial role in enhancing community facilities for both current and future residents. 

Maintaining a vibrant business environment is equally crucial for Māpua's sustainable growth. Without more attractive business offerings, the area's tourism potential during the summer and winter seasons could be at risk. The Masterplan aims to address these concerns and ensure a thriving economy.

Another key point of contention is the establishment of climate-resilient infrastructure to support existing and upcoming developments. The recent issue of sewage discharge into the estuary near Māpua's wharf has raised concerns about environmental sustainability. These challenges underscore the significance of proactive climate change planning and infrastructure development.

Be Part of the Conversation at Māpua Community Hall.

There are ten topics up for discussion, perhaps more to come, which underscores the importance of your input. The Māpua Community Hall is where the conversations will take place. Your presence and insights can significantly impact the future of Māpua. For more details on the Māpua Masterplan and how you can participate, please visit Shape.Tasman.govt.nz/mapua-masterplan-2023

This is from a concerned resident of Tasman

Raw sewerage or wastewater being pumped beside the Māpua wharf into the estuary August last year

People swimming by the Māpua wharf close to were raw sewerage or wastewater had been pumped out

Pigeon Post News Richmond

MetService Weather —A moon to observe!

 

A moon, a ridge, a front and a low

31/08/2023

Covering period of Thursday 31st August - Monday 4th September

According to MetService, a ridge maintains its presence holding settled weather over much of Aotearoa New Zealand today and Te Waipounamu/South Island in the weekend. A low affecting the upper north, spreads areas of rain to much of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island come Sunday.

There are clear skies forecast for this evening for many areas making great viewing conditions for  tonight’s Super Blue Moon. That being said, fog which affected parts of Kirikiriroa/Hamilton and Tāmaki Makaurau/Auckland this morning is likely to return early tomorrow morning which could hamper moon gazing in those areas. 

MetService meteorologist Dom Barry says, “The majority of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island will be fine this evening, however some areas of cloud are possible west of the Tararua and Ruahine Ranges, and also east of the Raukumara Range, which may make moon-spotting tricky at times. The east of the South Island will be in for a viewing treat, however, those on the West Coast and in the far south may struggle to get a peep.”

Those moon watches in Nelson and Tasman should have a wonderful view of the moon.

Heading into Saturday, settled weather continues over central Aotearoa New Zealand thanks to that ridge. Meanwhile, a front stalls over the lower South Island and a low-pressure system approaches the Far North, bringing rain and strong winds to both places. 

Barry continues, “An Orange Heavy Rain Warning has been issued for Fiordland about and south of George Sound from Friday morning to Saturday morning, with up to 180mm of rain expected to fall there.

As we approach the weekend, Watches and Warnings for rain and wind associated with the low-pressure system in the north are still a possible, so please stay up to date with information on our app or website.”

The ridge pushes the rain off the lower South Island during Saturday, bringing fine weather to most of the South Island over the weekend. Meanwhile, the low from the north continues to head southwards, bringing at least a period of rain to the entire North Island during the weekend, with northern and eastern areas likely to see a more prolonged spell of wet weather into early next week. Eventually, the low system will affect the eastern coasts of the upper South Island on Sunday with cloud and showers developing.

METSERVICE

Pigeon Post News

Flight chaos could 'last for days' in UK after air traffic control fault

UK air traffic control fault

Flight chaos will ‘last for days’ following today’s air traffic control faults, an aviation expert has warned.

More than 500 flights to and from the UK have been cancelled following a “technical issue” with air traffic control.

The National Air Traffic Services (NATS), the country’s leading provider of air traffic control services, said controllers are having to input flight plans manually due to a fault with its systems.

It apologised for the disruption caused by the failure, which is causing significant delays at UK airports. Shortly after 3.30pm, NATS said the technical issue had been “identified and remedied”.

The BBC has reported more than 500 UK flights, 232 departing and 271 arriving, have been cancelled as of 2.30pm according to data collated by aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Many more are likely to be delayed with passengers told to expect waits on the tarmac of up to 12 hours.

Today’s travel chaos will be ‘very thoroughly’ investigated, the Operations Director of NATS has said. 

In a video statement released this evening, Juliet Kennedy said: ‘First of all, I would like to apologise for the impact on people’s travel plans today.

“The issue we had earlier meant that our automatic system, which provides controllers with details of every aircraft and its route, wasn’t working.

“Instead, to manage safety, we had to limit the number of flights we could manage. 

“Our teams worked hard to resolve the problem and I’m pleased to say it was fixed earlier on this afternoon. 

“However, it will take some time for flights to return to normal and we will continue to work with the airlines and the airports to recover the situation. 

“Our absolute priority is safety and we will be investigating very thoroughly what happened today. 

“Again, I would like to apologise for the impact on the travelling public and to tell you that our teams will continue to work to get you on your way as soon as we can.”

Pigeon Post News

Heartbreaking Defeat for All Blacks as Springboks Dominate: A Devastating Blow in London

At Twickenham, London: Springboks 35

All Blacks 7

In a resounding triumph, the Springboks triumphed over the All Blacks with a commanding score of 35-7, leaving the New Zealand rugby giants reeling from a stinging defeat on the world stage. This morning's match, unfolding during New Zealand's time, proved to be a humbling and sobering experience for the All Blacks, who managed to put up only a mere 7 points.

Regrettably, this loss goes down as one of the most grievous setbacks in the illustrious history of the All Blacks, as their coach, Ian Foster, had orchestrated a rigorous test for his full-strength squad. However, the outcome demonstrated a glaring unpreparedness for the impending World Cup pool match, which looms just a fortnight away. Their first World Cup pool match, slated against France in Paris, now beckons ominously.

The All Blacks entered the fray with high hopes for a robust challenge, but they encountered more than they bargained for. The intensity of the match took a physical toll, most notably on tight-head prop Tyrel Lomax, who sustained a deep leg gash. Yet, the greater damage seemed to be inflicted upon the pride of the All Blacks, as their performance left much to be desired.

Historical records reflect that the last time the All Blacks endured such a comprehensive defeat at the hands of the Springboks was in 1928, when they faced a 17-0 loss in Durban.

Critics have been swift to voice their concerns, citing poor discipline, faltering lineouts, and an ineffective kicking game as contributing factors to this disappointing outcome. The consequences of these inadequacies were brutally clear, with the Springboks capitalizing on every opportunity presented. As the All Blacks contemplate their next steps, Foster faces a race against time to rectify the deficiencies that have surfaced. The challenges do not end there, as the aftermath of this clash has also left him to manage Tyrel Lomax's injury and Barrett's penalties.

In a fortunate turn, Barrett managed to escape the ultimate consequences of his actions on the field. His two yellow cards, though concerning, were not escalated to red by off-field officials, providing a semblance of relief and sparing him further sanctions.

On the whole, the match can only be described as a lackluster showing by the All Blacks. The echoes of this defeat will undoubtedly reverberate as the Rugby World Cup draws nearer, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the tournament. Observers will be keen to witness how the All Blacks rebound from this sobering experience, particularly when pitted against France. It is fervently hoped that this morning's disheartening dismantling will serve as a catalyst for the All Blacks to rise anew, ensuring that such a performance remains an aberration rather than the norm.

Pigeon Post News Richmond

More Firemen fly to Canada tomorrow

Fire and Emergency sends specialists to assist Canadians to fight wildfires

On 26 August 2023, a fifth deployment of Fire and Emergency and forestry company specialist personnel are departing Auckland airport to assist with the ongoing wildfires in Canada  said Fire and Emergency to 25 August 2023.

Echo deployment consists of two Divisional Supervisors, two Heavy Equipment Group Supervisors, one Air Operations Branch Director, one Helicopter Coordinator and one Area Representative.

An international effort has been made to assist Canada, with firefighters from Australia, United States, South Africa, France, Mexico, Costa Rica and Brazil all pitching in. 

This New Zealand deployment will provide much needed support and relief to local fire managers who have been doing it tough since May.

Fire and Emergency has already deployed 92 firefighters across four deployments to the country to help with the firefighting efforts. The majority of those firefighters were on the ground undertaking ‘arduous firefighting’.

New Zealand remains in frequent contact with Canada to assess how we can continue to support them.

Back home, we have begun preparing for the upcoming wildfire season in New Zealand, early, because it is expected to carry heightened fire danger due to an El Niño weather pattern this summer.

Fire and Emergency New Zealand

Media Centre

Pigeon Post News Richmond